Suffice to say, there is no suspense regarding who the San Antonio Spurs will select after winning the first overall pick at the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, but after that, there is significant debate about the next three to five prospects.
So with the Trail Blazers jumping up to secure the third overall pick (thanks B.Roy!), they'll have their pick of players just below Victor Wembanyama in the 2023 class, such as Brandon Miller out of Alabama, Scoot Henderson out of the G-League Ignite, one of the Thompson Twins out of the Overtime Elite or another player who impresses during workouts. So regardless of what Charlotte decides to do with the second pick, it seems like Portland getting a very good player at three is about the worst they could do, which is a great place to be.
But wait, there's more! Lost in some of the excitement around the Trail Blazers' moving up at Tuesday's Lottery is the fact that they also own the 23rd pick, which was acquired in the trade that sent Josh Hart to the Knicks. Do they use that pick to take a flyer on a young, talented player? Do they select an upperclassman who might be ready to step in and contribute during his rookie season? Do they go for the best player available or a positional fit? At this point in the process, all options are on the table.
So let's go ahead and look at the options those who cover the NBA Draft the closest have Portland going with less than 24 hours after the order was finalized. Henderson is the most common assumption, though it's certainly not a consensus. And there's little agreement when you get down to 23, if for no other reason than players in that range are much more likely to improve their stock during workouts than those at the top of the lottery. And there's probably not too much to be gained by guessing who the Trail Blazers might select with the 43rd pick, though a few of mock drafters do make selections all the way through the second round.
• Jon Givony at ESPN has the Trail Blazers selecting Sterling "Scoot" Henderson, a 6-2 point guard with the G-League Ignite...
The Blazers are attempting to thread a tight needle between navigating Damian Lillard's prime and rehauling an increasingly young roster highlighted by the promises flashes displayed by last season's lottery pick, Shaedon Sharpe. Finding the balance between team needs and talent is something the front office will have to consider at this slot, as Portland finds itself at No. 3 -- in what many consider to be a three-player draft -- with a player in Henderson who isn't a natural fit on its roster with franchise stalwart Lillard. Nevertheless, Henderson shows incredible flashes of ability accelerating out of hesitation moves, driving and dishing, and finishing with unique explosiveness and body control, as well as real shot-making prowess, something the team will surely be excited to add.
With the 23rd pick, Givony has the Trail Blazers going international to select James Nnaji, a 7-foot 18 year-old out of FC Barcelona...
Nnaji's role has fluctuated dramatically for Barcelona this season, keeping his stock in check as scouts have struggled to predict when they can get eyes on him. At 6-11, with a 7-4 wingspan and exceptional mobility and explosiveness, it's hard to find a more gifted prospect in this class from a physical standpoint. Portland could very well be looking to add a young big man to its array of talent to pair with the often-injured Jusuf Nurkic. Nnaji isn't ready to shoulder significant playing time, but the Trail Blazers, who struggled to get stops this season, might be attracted to the defensive upside he brings.
• Krysten Peak at Yahoo! Sports also has the Trail Blazers selecting Henderson...
Henderson is the best point guard in this draft class and will have the easiest transition to the NBA after playing in the G League the past two seasons with the same NBA rules and spacing. Henderson looks like a complete unit and has clearly worked on his body during the pre-draft process. He has also been working out with Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry to gear up for the draft. Henderson is a combination of Russell Westbrook and a healthy Derrick Rose with how explosive he is getting downhill, his passing and the way he finishes at the rim.
And with the 23rd pick, Peak has Portland selecting Iowa forward Kris Murray...
Murray is the twin brother of Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, who was drafted with the fourth overall pick in last year's draft. The Iowa forward showed a lot of improvement over the last two seasons and capped off his junior year with first-team All-Big Ten honors. His defense is what separates him from other forwards in this draft class, being able to guard multiple positions.
• Sam Vecenie at The Athletic has Henderson going at two, so he has Alabama forward Brandon Miller going to Portland at three...
Obviously, the Blazers will be disappointed not to win the lottery, but Miller would be an awesome consolation prize. He’ll be able to step in immediately as a useful player next to Lillard if the Blazers continue to go down the road of building around their longtime superstar point guard. Miller’s floor-spacing should be able to get him on the floor early, and his shot creation would be a perfect fit next to Jerami Grant’s athleticism. Even if the Blazers do decide to go in a different direction, Miller is a perfect long-term running partner for Shaedon Sharpe on the wing, with Sharpe’s explosive athleticism complementing Miller’s skilled shot making. It works across the board. One note, though: The Blazers love to draft for upside. This is a front office, going back to when Joe Cronin was an assistant GM, that loves betting on youth. Their picks last year with Cronin in the top chair didn’t change that. Think Anfernee Simons, Sharpe, Jabari Walker, Greg Brown, Nassir Little and Zach Collins. All of these guys were teenagers when the Blazers took them. There are some hits and some misses there, certainly. But the value has exceeded the draft slot for the most part.
As for the 23rd pick, Vecenie has Portland selecting freshman forward Noah Clowney out of Alabama...
The Blazers adore these types of players, as mentioned above. Clowney would fit right into their tradition of taking younger players and giving them time and space to develop, regardless of what their impending decision is on Damian Lillard and if they continue to build around him.
• Kevin O'Connor at The Ringer has Portland going with Scoot Henderson at three...
So, what does landing the third pick mean for the future of Damian Lillard? No matter who’s on the board, will he want to see through the development of another rookie? And if it’s Henderson, does that basically spell out the end of his tenure in Portland? The way the order shook out could lead to some movement in the lottery. Perhaps the Blazers become a target for teams looking to trade up and offload a veteran. No matter the case, Henderson gets the nod here and his electric style would give Blazers fans a new face of the franchise to get excited about.
And at 23, O'Connor has the Trail Blazers selecting freshman forward Jett Howard out of Michigan...
Howard received some lottery buzz during his freshman season but is now seen as a mid-to-late first-rounder. With his impressive scoring ability, he’s worth the risk for a team like the Blazers, stuck between a youth movement and looking to win now.
• Gary Parrish at CBS Sports has Portland selecting Henderson with the third pick...
If Miller goes second, odds are Henderson will go third. The G-League Ignite product has the athleticism and strength to be a franchise-changing lead guard as long as his still-developing 3-point shot eventually becomes reliable.
At 23, Parrish has Portland selecting freshman forward Dariq Whitehead out of Duke...
Whitehead had an underwhelming one season at Duke, where he only averaged 8.3 points per game. But he did shoot 42.4% from 3-point range as a 6-7 wing, and at this point in the draft he's worth a flyer even though he's expected to soon have another procedure performed on his injured right foot.
• Ricky O'Donnell at SBNation bucks a bit of pre-draft convention by having Portland selecting Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson...
Twins Amen and Ausar Thompson feel like the biggest wildcards of the 2023 NBA Draft after they bypassed more traditional routes for the upstart Overtime Elite league — but passing on them in the top-five might be even riskier than taking them. We’ll give Amen the slight edge over his brother because of his playmaking potential as a lead guard. At 6’7 with a 7-foot wingspan, Thompson has the size of a wing and the skill of a guard, and will be one of the five most athletic players in the league next season. He has incredible speed in the open floor and a blazing first step to draw two defenders to the ball, and at times he’ll have some truly creative passing flashes. Thompson is also a remarkable leaper around the basket, but he still needs to improve as a finisher when he’s not dunking it. His intersection of size, speed, leaping, passing, and defensive versatility gives him sky-high upside, but he’s a rough outside shooter who will essentially be starting from scratch with his three-point shot. He’d be a gamble at No. 3, but he has more upside than any player left on the board.
And with the 23rd pick, O'Donnell has the Trail Blazers selecting Emoni Bates, who most recently played at Eastern Michigan after starting his collegiate career at Memphis...
Bates will go down as one of the most infamous prospects of his generation regardless of his NBA career turns out. At 15 years old, Bates was being called “the next Kevin Durant” for his combination of size and shooting. His winding high school path led him to enroll at Memphis as a 17-year-old, where his turnovers, inefficient scoring, and injuries ultimately pushed him out of the rotation. He landed with his hometown Eastern Michigan program and put up big scoring numbers on a terrible team, but there are still serious questions about how his game will translate to the next level. Bates does have a few things going for him, namely: size (6’10), shooting, and youth. The guess here is some team will find him intriguing enough to take in the first round.
• Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has Portland selecting Brandon Miller with their first pick...
Landing the No. 3 pick should spark debate inside Portland's front office.
Presumably, the Blazers' preference would be trading the right to draft Henderson or Miller for an established star to pair alongside Damian Lillard. But it also may be a good opportunity for a fresh start. The Blazers could get a significant haul of young talent to pair with Henderson or Miller, along with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe.
Miller's scoring and shot-making does fit smoothly at the 3 in Portland. He'd start right away and provide immediate shooting and some bonus two-way playmaking.
If Miller goes No. 2, then it seems even more likely Portland trades.
And with their second pick he's got Duke freshman center Dereck Lively heading to Portland...
The Blazers figure to show interest in Lively purely for his rim protection, which seems likely to translate based on his elite length and 12.7 block percentage. Though he's limited offensively, he'd still serve as a useful high-percentage finishing and lob target.
• Bryan Kalbrosky of USA Today has Portland selecting Henderson at three...
Despite playing against the toughest professional competition, G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson averaged 16.5 points while also adding 5.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game.
He may live in the shadow of Wembanyama, who is still the heavy favorite to hear his name called at No. 1 overall. But even Wembanyama has said that Henderson would be the NBA’s top prospect in any other class.
And at 23, Kalbrosky also has the Trail Blazers taking Kris Murray out of Iowa...
Iowa’s Kris Murray would have benefited from a stronger performance in the NCAA men’s tournament, but it’s still worth noting that he had an excellent season. The All-Big Ten forward finished the season averaging 20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game.